The Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention has issued a warning about the high likelihood of mpox spreading to neighboring countries and beyond. This concern was highlighted in a recent article on the organization’s website.
The Africa CDC pointed out various factors contributing to the elevated risk, including cross-border movements, limited awareness among the public, increased susceptibility due to conditions like HIV and malnutrition, insufficient understanding of how mpox is transmitted, and a lack of adequate response capabilities, such as shortages of vaccines.
On August 13, 2024, the Africa CDC took the decision to classify mpox as a public health emergency of continental significance in Africa.
This action was taken in line with its responsibilities to address major public health risks. The move was prompted by the deteriorating situation regarding mpox across the continent.
The data reveals a concerning trend, with a total of 40,874 cases and 1,512 fatalities reported in 15 AU member states since 2022. In 2024 alone, there have been 17,541 cases and 517 deaths recorded in 13 AU member states.
These figures show a significant increase of 160% in cases and 19% in deaths for 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. Additionally, there was a 79% surge in cases between 2022 and 2023, as per the Africa CDC’s statistics.
Notably, the Democratic Republic of the Congo accounted for a vast majority, with 96% of all cases and 97% of deaths reported in 2024.
This underscores the urgent need for robust measures to control the spread of mpox and safeguard public health on a continental scale.
“Investigations in the DRC suggest that heterosexual transmission, especially among female sex workers (nine per cent), is driving the outbreak, contrasting with the spread mainly among men who have sex with men in Europe in 2022. The high prevalence among women raises concerns about vertical transmission risks and adverse pregnancy outcomes.
“The high risk of severe infection among people living with HIV, considerations for asymptomatic infections, poor vaccination strategies, limited access to medical countermeasures, and low detection rates were other concerns. The outbreak is further complicated by a high case fatality rate of over 3·9 per cent, particularly among children younger than 15 years, who account for 60 per cent of cases.
“Cross-border movements, low public awareness, high vulnerability due to factors such as HIV and malnutrition, limited understanding of mpox transmission, and insufficient response capacities, including vaccine shortages, pose significant challenges to containment. The risk of mpox spreading to neighbouring countries and globally is high,” it noted.
It further emphasized that the day before the PHECS announcement, 15 of the 20-member Emergency Consultative Group met to advise the Africa CDC Director General, Dr Jean Kaseya, on whether the mpox outbreak constituted a PHECS.
“The group redefined PHECS as a significant event posing a risk to other countries, requiring immediate continental-level action to prevent and mitigate disease spread—expanding the original definition in the Africa CDC statute.
“They also developed specific criteria to assess the situation objectively. These criteria, organised into nine areas, included: disease severity, transmission dynamics, impact on health systems, vaccine and treatment availability, public health risk, economic and social impact, public concern, global health security, and political considerations.
“The framework was developed to guide a transparent and consistent decision-making process for declaring a PHECS in Africa,” it noted.
